Macro Econometrics

Course Description

Macroeconometrics develops the basic tools of time series to design dynamic models that explain the data, discriminate among alternative theories, and are used to forecast. The focus is on the following questions: Why is time a big deal for Macroeconometrics? How can one model the dynamics of the response of one variable to changes in its determinants? Can I treat the parameters as constant? What is forecast accuracy? Should the focus be on a single equation or on a system of equations? What are the assumptions, weaknesses, and strengths? Are there alternative methods of addressing a given issue? The course develops and applies this modeling strategy to understand the interactions between the price of oil and the value of the dollar. I will provide the data for these applications. Students write three “papers” that constitute the three sections of an integrated paper. The first three papers focus on (1) data properties; (2) assessing the inferential quality of the estimating equations; and (3) assessing forecast accuracy relative to alternative models. The fourth paper integrates the three papers into a reliable econometric model to explain and forecast the price of oil and the value of the U.S. dollar. Prerequisite(s): SA.100.401[C] OR SA.340.710[C];Students may not register for this class if they have already received credit for SA.340.735[C]

Code

SA.100.404

Credits

4

Subject

Core Courses

Programs That Include This Course

• Master's International Relations, Master of Arts